[JPL] New Study: Most music didn't sell a single copy in 2008

[Bob Crispen]

Jazz Promo Services wrote:
> http://www.guardian.co.uk/music/2008/dec/23/music-sell-sales
> 
> Most music didn't sell a single copy in 2008
> A massive 10m songs failed to find a single buyer this year, reports a new
> study
> Sean Michaels
> guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 23 December 2008 14.28 GMT
> 
> According to a new study, of the 13m songs available for sale on the
> internet last year, more than 10m failed to find a single buyer.
> 
> The research, conducted by the MCPS-PRS's Will Page and Andrew Bud, brings
> us that much closer to proving Sturgeon's Law ­ that 90% of everything is
> crap. It also provides evidence for the famous old rock critic adage ­ your
> favourite band sucks.
> 
> More importantly, these findings challenge the "long tail" theory that
> diverse, specialised items ­ though individually less popular - will
> together outsell mainstream "hits".
> 
> Page is the chief economist at the MCPS-PRS Alliance, a not-for-profit
> royalty collection agency. According to his and Bud's research, 80% of all
> revenue came from about 52,000 tracks ­ the "hits" that powered the music
> industry. Broken down by album, only 173,000 of the 1.23m available albums
> were ever purchased ­ leaving 85% without a single copy sold.
> 
> "I think people believed in a fat, fertile long tail because they wanted it
> to be true," Mr Bud told the Times. "The statistical theories used to
> justify that theory were intelligent and plausible. But they turned out to
> be wrong."
> 
> "The relative size of the dormant 'zero sellers' tail was truly
> jaw-dropping," Page emphasised.

He can emphasize whatever he likes, but generalizing from that research 
to the falsity of the long tail is a leap worthy of Evel Knievel and 
virtually demands that someone examine the credentials of Page and the 
people who paid for the research.

Maybe it's true, maybe it's false, and maybe the writer at The Grauniad 
misstated the long tail hypothesis. We live in an age where research 
results can be manufactured to order and news outlets publish anything 
interest groups hand them.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Long_Tail

Bottom line: Skepticism is in order.
-- 
Bob Crispen

http://blog.crispen.org/

In every work of genius we recognize our own rejected thoughts; they 
come back to us with a certain alienated majesty. - Emerson.